Shockwave for Democrats: Rep. Connolly Retires Amid Health Battle, Changing 2026 Election Game

Democrats received another major blow ahead of the 2026 elections as a prominent House member announced he will not seek reelection due to a recurring cancer diagnosis.

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), 75, announced that he will finish out his current term in Congress but will not seek re-election in 2026.

This unexpected decision has raised concerns for Democrats, as they already face an uphill battle in trying to regain control of the House in the upcoming election.

Connolly, who has served as a member of Congress for over two decades, revealed his diagnosis of cancer six months ago.

In a letter to supporters, he expressed gratitude for their outpouring of love and support during his treatment but confirmed that the cancer had returned after initially being beaten back.

“Your outpouring of love and support has given me strength in my fights – both against cancer and in our collective defense of democracy,” Connolly wrote, according to Trending Politics.

“The sun is setting on my time in public service, and this will be my last term in Congress. I will be stepping back as Ranking Member of the Oversight Committee.”

His seat, Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, is unlikely to be a target for Republicans, with Cook Political Report ranking it as D+18.

Connolly has consistently won re-election with overwhelming support, especially in Fairfax County, which includes the northern suburbs of Washington, D.C.

However, the political landscape has changed since the pandemic, and Virginia Republicans under Gov. Glenn Youngkin have experienced a resurgence, according to the outlet.

This could lead to a competitive race for the district in 2026, forcing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) to expend valuable resources to hold onto a seat that had previously been considered safe.

Adding to the uncertainty is the demographic shift in the D.C. metro area.

The exodus of fired federal workers following the Trump administration’s terminations has caused home sales in the region to skyrocket and longtime bureaucrats relocating could change the makeup of the district, potentially benefiting a Republican challenger.

The announcement follows Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D) retirement announcement last week, ending a 44-year congressional career, as Resist the Mainstream highlighted last week.

His departure, along with Connolly’s, signals a significant shift within the Democratic Party, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the 2026 election.

Election forecasters remain divided on which party will control the House after 2026.

Generic ballot tests tend to favor Democratic candidates, but other models predict that Republicans will pick up at least 208 reliably red seats, compared to Democrats’ 205.

The remaining 22 seats remain too close to call, heightening the stakes for both parties as the election approaches, according to TP.

Other Democratic veterans are also stepping away from politics.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), 80, will vacate her seat after 15 terms rather than face a 26-year-old primary challenger.

Meanwhile, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is considering whether to continue her political career or face a challenge from a former aide to socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

While some Democrats are leaving, others are eyeing higher office.

Reps. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) are both seriously considering running for open Senate seats in their states, following announcements by Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) that they will not seek re-election.

As the 2026 election approaches, the departure of experienced Democrats and the changing political landscape raise questions about how these retirements may affect the party’s outlook.

With key seats at stake and Republicans making gains, both parties are preparing for a highly competitive race.